1 EAGLETON NOTES: Confidence

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Thursday, 5 October 2017

Confidence

It's hard to have faith in weather forecasts when the Met Office weather app on my phone gives me two different forecasts at the same time for the same place. The top one is for where the phone is (it was at home) and the second is a pre-set choice of my home (for when I'm not at home).


31 comments:

  1. Some dufus got the code wrong!

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    1. Looks like it Kylie. The problem is that the code is still wrong.

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  2. Actually I pay very little heed to the weather forecasts. For in this land the weather is largely unpredictable and I will share a recent weather event: Mrs H returned from her studio the other day to say that it was raining torrents in the garden and yet when I looked out of the front window it was dry and sunny.
    This not the first time that we have had a two different weather conditions over our property.

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    1. Heron I agree for the most part that weather will be what it will be and that's that. However when one lives on an Island and is dependant on a 2 1/2 hour ferry journey to get to the Mainland the weather becomes very important when planning trips to the Mainland. It's also good to know when hurricanes are coming so that one can batten down the hatches and put the storm shutters up.

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  3. At least you have Ellie Creed. I have some rough bloke telling me it will be fine if it doesn't rain.

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    1. True Adrian. The deliverer can make all the difference.

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  4. Did any of them come close to Reality? ;)
    With the TV forecasts here, I feel that they usually only talk about the weather expected along the coast, and when they get a bit inland, they just do a vague sweeping gesture that seems to mean "we really have no idea"...

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    1. Monica I don't recall whether they came close to reality but the weather forecasts here are usually quite reasonable. Because living on an Island makes weather important at times we tend to be more aware of it I think than people living in cities (whose main concern is often what to wear if going out). Obviously farmers and the like need to know what the weather is going to be like as well.

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  5. O.K. and I often compare what the different weather apps on our mobile phones say. We both have each other's place in our settings, and often there is a slightly different temperature and probability of rain for the same place on our respective apps.
    Never mind - there are days (such as today) when, in spite of the forecast, I did not take an umbrella with me as I left the house in beautiful morning sunshine, and got completely soaked on the way home from work.

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    1. Living on Lewis, Meike, I almost always assume that there will be rain and wind at some point. However it is the weather extremes that are important for us: particularly the wind.

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  6. I know what you mean, doesn't take long for the weather to change here either, btw is that 12 deg celsius?

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    1. Yes, Amy, it's celsius. Whilst I'm bi-lingual in metric and imperial for length and weight I can only think in celsius for temperature now.

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  7. I really don't know why I bother consulting my daily forecast (which I do); I survive very well without a watch, I could survive just as well without incorrect forecasts too.

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    1. I don't wear a watch any more either Cro. However weather forecasts can be very important indeed when living on an Island 2 1/2 hours from the Mainland.

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  8. I wouldn't want to be the weather forecaster here today. This morning Georgia and I went for a walk in the bush and got quite hot. Then we checked out the lake and it was so warm Georgia considered going for a swim. Two hours later it turned cool and rained. But I'd already had a lovely day so didn't mind. Hope you had a Good Day despite the confusion!

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    1. Pauline I don't think it was a day when the weather mattered (which is most days it has to be said - I adjust what I'm doing to suit the weather if I'm at home). However it can matter when making travel plans.

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  9. The 'joke' that 'If you can't see the hills it's raining, if you can see the hills it's going to rain' is just about true in winter. I always read our forecast, but only as a guide and never check the actal temperatures. We watch the Weather Forcast near the BBC TV news and see if our bit of France appears on their map.

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    1. Potty I suspect we say that everywhere. Oddly when the weather is at its warmest and sunniest it if often impossible to see the Mainland from the Island.

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  10. What you need is one of those little Swiss chalets from which either a little man or a little woman emerges to tell you what the weather will be like. Far more reliable than an app on a mobile phone.

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    1. There used to be a 'seaweed using man' near Helmseley who was famously not often wrong

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    2. YP I have the modern equivalent which, of course, works on barometric pressure and humidity. It doesn't tell me whether the direction and strength of tomorrow's wind which will determine what I most need to know from the weather service ie will the ferry sail?

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  11. I think that sometimes, these forecasters would do better if they just looked out of the window. They frequently tell us here that it is sunny/rainy/whatever, when it patently isn't

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    1. For me Frances it often depends whether I look out of the front of back of the house.

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    2. Ah Graham I had a cat that didn't believe it would be raining at the back door just because it was at the front!

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    3. Jill if he lived in the Hebrides he'd be a sensible cat!

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  12. Hmmmm hmmmmmm. Well I have always been a bit sceptical about weather forecasts. I always look at the rain radar though.

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    1. Jenny the rain isn't my problem so I look at the wind apps to make sure (as far as I can) that my ferry isn't likely to be disrupted if I have to be somewhere off the Island.

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  13. A friend said to me today. The best way to know the weather is to put your head out of the window.

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    1. Diane sometimes I think there's a lot of sense in that.

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  14. Ahh weather forecasters... the bane of farmers. They seem to like to take an each way bet so they are never wrong.

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    1. The bane of people who rely on the weather for sea travel too Lynda.

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